How Saudi Arabia turned back climate progress at COP29

Saudi Arabia and its allies had two words they didn’t want to see repeated in a COP29 deal: „fossil fuels.” The faction got their way after two weeks of bitter negotiations in Azerbaijan, reversing gains made in earlier climate talks and helping to knock this year’s proceedings off track.

The Gulf state surprised the world at COP28 when it joined nearly 200 nations in agreeing to transition away from fossil fuels, but it’s been trying to walk that historic moment back ever since. „The Arab Group will not accept any text that targets specific sectors, including fossil fuels,” Saudi representative Albara Tawfiq made clear to delegates at this month’s United Nations meeting in Baku.

They got what they wanted. Negotiators passed a climate finance deal that will see developing countries get $300 billion annually by 2035 to combat global warming. But they didn’t recommit specifically to move away from the dirty energy sources that compound the problem — something the U.S., European Union and other countries pressed for in exchange for the funds.

After three decades of being the main opposition at the annual climate talks, the Saudis have developed a sophisticated playbook, according to veteran negotiators. They are masters of the arcane and complicated rules that govern the COP process, said multiple people who participated in the closed-door debates, and used that skill to raise oblique objections to run down the clock and present poor compromises that were non-starters.

The Saudi Energy Ministry didn’t respond to questions about the COP29 negotiations.

Saudi Arabia’s increasing aptitude at navigating the byzantine bureaucracy of U.N. climate talks sets up a tough fight at next year’s COP30 in Brazil. After two years of being led by petrostates, the summit will turn to a progressive government who has made clear it wants to seek an ambitious deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But the meeting will also be reshaped by the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump that would, at the very least, be less engaged in the process and could even lend support to nations that want to further entrench fossil fuels in the global economy.

COPs function by consensus, meaning every country needs to agree for a deal to pass. That’s made it tricky for diplomats on the ground because any single country can derail the entire meeting. Many top negotiators have made pointed statements about the Saudis but remain reluctant to call them out directly. And some, from countries such as Russia, India and Iran, are happy to stay quiet and let Saudi Arabia be the face of the fight to defend fossil fuels.

One crucial tactic the Saudis deployed this year, starting from the debate over the COP29 agenda, itself, was to try and take the fossil fuel discussion off the table by arguing that talks in Baku were supposed to focus on a finance deal. Most negotiators see the two issues as intertwined, because climate change can’t be tackled without cutting emissions, even if trillions of dollars are invested.

Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the think tank E3G, says the Saudis used a similar strategy at the U.N.’s mid-year climate meeting in Bonn last year. Its negotiators argued that discussions could not start on pledges to cut emissions — known as the „mitigation work program” — because not enough progress was being made on „adaptation goals,” or targets that countries need to set for how they are going to manage the impacts of a warmer world.

But when Meyer checked in on the adaptation goals, he found the Saudis were also stymying progress on those talks so they could hold up the mitigation work. „They’ve just been a dog with a bone trying to block any discussion on mitigation,” he said.

At COP29, the Saudis ultimately scored a partial victory by watering down a separate deal on implementing the outcomes of last year’s summit. Negotiators from Latin America and some small-island states refused to approve the document, which used the term „transition fuels” as a euphemism for planet-warming natural gas, and dropped any mention of the landmark agreement to „transition away from fossil fuels.” The debate will resume in Bonn next June.

Even as talks were under way in Baku, Saudi representatives were pressing the same point at the Group of Twenty meeting in Rio de Janeiro. The final communique reiterated COP28’s outcomes, including a goal to triple renewable energy, but didn’t say anything about fossil fuels. It was a concession to the Saudis, who offered to include some specific goals if leaders deleted the mention of fossil fuels, according to a person familiar with the G-20 talks.

In Baku, the Saudis also seized on the huge gulf between rich and poor countries over the finance goal to drive a wedge in the talks. In the second week, the Azerbaijani presidency put forward a draft text that offered $250 billion annually by 2035, which developing countries called a „joke.” Tawfiq, the Saudi delegate, spoke up at the plenary meeting where countries aired grievances. To the surprise of some island nations, he called for the sum to be doubled to $500 billion, much higher than the upper limit the U.S. and Europe had indicated was possible.

As negotiations came down to the wire, two powerful groups huddled at opposing ends of the stage. On the left, diplomats from the U.S., EU, United Arab Emirates and the Group of 77 countries gathered around India’s representative, who opposed a clause in the final draft text. On the right, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman and China’s climate envoy Liu Zhenmin looked intently at a single phone screen, also discussing the document.

There would be no deal if the Saudis didn’t acquiesce, and negotiators worried they would be even tougher to convince next year. Trump’s return to power was top of mind for John Podesta, U.S. President Joe Biden’s top climate adviser, given the U.S. has been crucial in getting Saudis to agree on climate deals in the past.

„There’s definitely a challenge in getting a greater ambition when you’re negotiating with the Saudis,” said Podesta. „At the end of the day, I think they were instrumental in working with the [Azeri] presidency, working with all the parties, to make sure we actually got the result we wanted.”